The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
Stock Market News today, PSU banks: The year 2024 was a roller-coaster ride for Indian stock markets, marked by volatility driven by the Lok Sabha elections, Union Budget 2024, a slowdown in corporate earnings, and sticky inflation. Geopolitical tensions - particularly between Israel and Iran in West Asia - along with various stimulus announcements by China and yen carry trade rocked the equity markets throughout the year.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
'The choice is clear: We either embrace this transformation and cement our global leadership, or hesitate, lose ground, and fade into irrelevance.'
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
'Market corrections are a natural part of investing, so it's essential to remain focused on long-term financial goals.'
After a strong run in the midcap and smallcap indices, which surged 46 per cent and 43 per cent, respectively, on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) during Samvat 2080, analysts suggest that the rally in these segments may pause to catch its breath in Samvat 2081.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
'As we navigate uncertain waters, a conservative approach to largecap investing could provide a strategic advantage.'
Releasing its annual Global Risks 2014 report, Geneva-based WEF said that the income disparity was the most likely risk to cause an impact on a global scale in the next decade, while other significant risks include extreme weather events, unemployment and fiscal crises.
AI-driven and deepfake-enabled cyberattacks are anticipated to become increasingly prevalent in 2025 with sectors like healthcare and finance most prone targets, according to a recent report. The India Cyber Threat Report 2025 by the Data Security Council of India (DSCI) and Seqrite, spotlighted the evolving tactics of cybercriminals and the rise of AI-driven attacks as a major concern. "Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be used to develop highly sophisticated phishing campaigns utilising deepfake technology and personalised attack vectors, making them harder to detect.
Foreign investors continued their relentless selling in the Indian equity markets in August, offloading shares worth Rs 21,201 crore due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, recession fears in the US and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. This came after an inflow of Rs 32,365 crore in July and Rs 26,565 crore in June, data with the depositories showed.
American brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday sharply cut its India FY23 real GDP growth estimate to 7.9 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil prices. Analysts at the brokerage also raised their inflation forecast to 6 per cent - the upper end of the tolerance band for the RBI - and flagged stagflation risks because of the ongoing events. "We believe that the ongoing geopolitical tensions exacerbate external risks and impart a stagflationary impulse to the economy," they said. It can be noted that stagflation involves a stagnancy in output or growth, coupled with high inflation.
the largest transactions of the year include the merger of Quality Care India and Aster DM Healthcare valued at $5.08 billion, followed by Bharti Enterprises' acquisition of a 24.5 per cent stake in the BT Group at $4.08 billion, and a family settlement transaction in the Godrej family at $3.5 billion.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
The rupee plunged 90 paise to close at an all-time low of 80.86 (provisional) against the US dollar on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and its hawkish stance weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said the US Fed's rate hike and escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine sapped risk appetite. Moreover, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a muted trend in domestic equities, risk-off mood and firm crude oil prices weighed on the rupee.
'Consider your household's financial health and all your other goals.' 'Buying a house might seem like an urgent goal, but it is rarely the only one.'
'The structural story of India is a multi-decadal story.' 'One should stay invested in that story and avoid reacting to what is happening globally.'
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
'While my generation carries with it the memory of the Chinese perfidy of 1962, this generation will carry the memory of Chinese perfidy in Galwan.'
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
'Allocate up to 20 per cent of your core equity portfolio to quality funds.'
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
United States President-elect Donald Trump's plan to overhaul the government with a new department headed by tech billionaire Elon Musk and Indian-origin entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will be a biggest threat for China as it has to compete with far more efficient US political system, a policy advisor to the Chinese government said.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty on Friday reversed their six-session losing streak and rebounded more than 1 per cent on value buying in auto, IT, financial and energy stocks. Better than expected quarterly financial results of corporates also boosted investor sentiments even as uncertainties persisted over the escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to analysts. In a largely range-bound trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex rose 634.65 points or 1.01 per cent to settle at 63,782.80 points.
Moody's has forecast that China would be the only G-20 country to post growth this year.
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
'Given the inherent volatility, investors should take at least a three to five-year view.'
ABB reported a weak quarter. Revenue was at Rs 2,910 crore, up only 5 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), with operating profit at Rs 540 crore, up 23 per cent and net profit at Rs 440 crore.
If technical analysts are to be believed, the index has more room for a slide down to 72,000 levels in the worst-case scenario, wiping out all the gains made in 2024 so far.
Reserve Bank on Thursday retained the growth and inflation projection at 7.2 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively for the current fiscal amid expectations of a normal monsoon. In its last bi-monthly monetary policy review in June, RBI had projected real GDP growth and retail inflation at the same.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
The Reserve Bank is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate in its forthcoming bi-monthly monetary policy review later in the week as retail inflation is still a cause of concern, and there is a possibility of the Middle East crisis deteriorating further, impacting crude oil and commodity prices, say experts.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
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